Effects of climate change on aquaculture site selection at a temperate estuarine system.

Aquaculture is one of the food industries that most evolved in recent years in response to increased human demand for seafood products, which has led to a progressive stock threat in nature. With a high seafood consumption per capita, Portugal has been exploring its coastal systems to improve the cultivation of fish and bivalve species with high commercial value. In this context, this study aims to propose the use of a numerical model as a tool to assess the impact of climate change on aquaculture site selection in a temperate estuarine system (Sado estuary). Therefore, the Delft3D model was calibrated and validated, showing good accuracy in predicting the local hydrodynamics, transport, and water quality. Furthermore, two simulations for the historical and future conditions were performed to establish a Suitability Index capable of identifying the most appropriate sites to exploit two bivalve species (one clam and one oyster), considering both winter and summer seasons. Results suggest that the estuary's northernmost region presents the best conditions for bivalves' exploitation, with more suitable conditions during summer than winter due to the higher water temperature and chlorophyll-a concentrations. Regarding future projections, the model results suggest that environmental conditions will likely benefit the production of both species due to the increase in chlorophyll-a concentration along the estuary.

Evaluation of future estuarine floods in a sea level rise context.

Reliable predictions of future inundation extent within estuaries require a precise evaluation of future extreme sea levels and the application of accurate numerical models that account for the physical processes driving estuarine hydrodynamics. In this study, a methodology that integrates the estimation of local extreme sea levels with high-resolution numerical modeling was applied to assess the future inundation extent in five estuarine systems located on the Portuguese Coast. The main findings obtained were compared with available results from the popular bathtub approach, that disregards the physical processes driving estuarine hydrodynamics and therefore provide imprecise predictions of inundation extent and associated socio-economic impacts. The inundation extent is revealed to be highly dependent on the extreme sea levels and on the estuarine geomorphology, which controls the propagating long-wave. As the long-wave height is highly attenuated within estuaries that have adjacent low-lying areas, restricted inlets, or extensive tidal flats, the results of this study revealed that the extent of inundation is considerably smaller than that obtained by the bathtub approach. The uncertainties associated with mean sea level rise and the estuarine geomorphological evolution constitute the greatest difficulty in assessing the extent of flooding, posing major challenges to the efficient and sustainable management of estuaries.

A habitat suitability model for aquaculture site selection: Ria de Aveiro and Rias Baixas.

Aquaculture is one of the fastest-growing activities worldwide. This strong and rapid development of the sector tends to be reflected in significant environmental impacts and new challenges in the management of the coastal areas. In this context, this work intends to contribute to the sustainability of the sector, by proposing an innovative method to identify preferred locations to ensure sustainable expansion of fish and mussels aquaculture, under optimal hydrodynamic and water quality conditions in Ria de Aveiro (Portugal) and Rias Baixas (Spain). A habitat model was developed, integrating hydrodynamic and water quality modelling results into a suitability index based on the definition of variable suitability functions. The results show that 22% of Ria de Aveiro is very good for fish production. In contrast, the production of pelagic fish in Rias Baixas is not recommended due to vertical gradients of water temperature and seasonal events of hypoxia. Concerning to mussels, the habitat model classifies 31% of Ria de Aveiro area as very good for production, while most of the Rias Baixas area presents this highest classification, confirming the high exploitation of the region. The definition of appropriate areas for aquaculture exploitation is highly related with the different geomorphological, hydrological and biogeochemical processes of Ria de Aveiro and Rias Baixas. Results for Ria de Aveiro indicate that the upstream areas are the most vulnerable from the water quality point of view, highlighting the importance of the advective processes in the lagoon's water quality, in opposition to Rias Baixas dynamics, where stratification is more relevant. In Rias Baixas, the strong vertical gradient of water temperature and dissolved oxygen prevents fish from having sustainable growth rates. Therefore, this work demonstrated the potential of the proposed method based on hydrodynamic and biogeochemical modelling to support the decision-making process in planning aquaculture expansion.

Modelling the distribution of microplastics released by wastewater treatment plants in Ria de Vigo (NW Iberian Peninsula).

The accumulation of plastic waste in estuaries is growing due to the increase in their use in daily life and their inadequate treatment on wastewater plants (WWTPs). Hydrodynamic and particle-tracking models were validated and used to improve the knowledge about the distribution and concentration of microplastics released by WWTPs in the Ria de Vigo. Results showed that the Vigo WWTP is the main driver of microplastics to the Ria de Vigo. Besides, 21% of the released microplastics reach the adjacent ocean, 24% remain anchored around the Cies Islands, and a negligible percentage reaches the upper estuary when the emission occurs under ebb on spring tide conditions. A negligible number of released microplastics is exported to the nearby ocean when the emission occurs under neap tide conditions. This research can provide a useful tool to support the identification of monitoring processes and debris removal.

NW Iberian Peninsula coastal upwelling future weakening: Competition between wind intensification and surface heating.

Climate change will modify the oceanographic future properties of the NW Iberian Peninsula due to the projected variations in the meteorological forcing, that will intensify local winds and promote surface heating. The Delft3D-Flow model forced with atmospheric conditions provided within the framework of the CORDEX project under the RCP 8.5 greenhouse emission scenario was used to analyse changes in upwelling. Numerical experiments were conducted under high-extreme upwelling conditions for the historical (1976-2005) and future (2070-2099) period. This study also innovates through the exploitation of a numerical modelling approach that includes both shelf and estuarine processes along the coastal zone. Coastal upwelling will be less effective in the future despite the enhancement of upwelling favorable wind patterns previously predicted for this region. Upwelling weakening is due to the future sea surface warming that will increase the stratification of the upper layers hindering the upward displacement of the underlying water, reducing the surface input of nutrients.

A 32-Year-Old Woman with Relapsing Pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Isolated right pulmonary artery agenesis in an adult patient is an extremely rare condition that requires a high level of suspicion to make the diagnosis. CASE DESCRIPTION: A 32-year-old woman presented to the emergency room with a 4-month history of recurrent respiratory infections. Chest radiography and computerized tomography (CT) revealed alveolar opacities on the medium and inferior right lobes. Fibreoptic bronchoscopy with bronchial aspirate was negative on both cytological and microbiological analysis. Due to the persistent of the imaging findings after a full course of a wide-spectrum antibiotic, an angio-CT was performed, revealing a complete stop at the level of the right pulmonary artery. Angiography confirmed the diagnosis of right pulmonary artery agenesis. DISCUSSION: Currently, the patient has no exertional dyspnoea, screening for pulmonary hypertension has so far been negative and no further respiratory infections have occurred. It is important to call attention to a major congenital malformation that may remain asymptomatic until adulthood. LEARNING POINTS: Unilateral pulmonary agenesis is a rare entity that can present in multiple forms.A high level of suspicion and a thorough investigation is required for the diagnosis, with angiography remaining important even though chest angio-CT findings can suggest the diagnosis.A major complication of this condition is pulmonary hypertension, which can appear early in infancy or with conditions that modify the pulmonary circulation such as pregnancy, although previous pregnancies did not trigger pulmonary hypertension in our patient.

Why coastal upwelling is expected to increase along the western Iberian Peninsula over the next century?

Former studies about coastal upwelling along the Western Iberian Peninsula (WIP) using historical data indicated contradictory results, showing either its strengthening or reduction, while previous studies using Global Climate Models (GCMs) indicated that global warming is likely to intensify this phenomenon although predicting different rates and not justifying the patterns found. Taking advantage of the recent high spatial resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) projections from EURO-CORDEX project (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP 8.5), detailed higher accuracy estimations of the spatio-temporal trends of Upwelling Index (UI) along the WIP coast were performed in this study, integrating the coastal mesoscale effects within the framework of climate change. Additionally, this research brings new insights about the origin of the WIP coastal upwelling intensification over the next century. These new projections clarified the upwelling strengthening rates predicted along the coast of the WIP from 2006 to 2099 revealing more prominent changes in the northern limit of the region (25-30m3s-1km-1 per decade between 41.5 and 42.5°N). Trends observed at high latitudes of the region were found to be induced by the displacement of the Azores High, which will intensify (0.03hPa per decade) and drift northeastward (10km per decade) during the 21st century.

Unusual circulation patterns of the Rias Baixas induced by Minho freshwater intrusion (NW of the Iberian Peninsula).

The Minho River, situated 30 km south of the Rias Baixas, is the most important freshwater source flowing into the Western Galician coast (NW of the Iberian Peninsula). The buoyancy generated by the Minho estuarine plume can reverse the normal circulation pattern inside the Rias Baixas affecting the exchange between the Rias and the ocean, changing the input of nutrients. Nevertheless, this inversion of the circulation patterns is not a well-monitored phenomenon. The only published results based on in situ data related to the presence of the Minho River plume inside the Rias de Vigo and Pontevedra correspond to an event measured on spring 1998. In this case unexpectedly higher inflow surface current velocities were found at the Ria de Pontevedra, located further away from Minho River. Thus, the main aim of this study is to research the main factors inducing this unusual pattern on the circulation of the Rias de Vigo and Pontevedra. A numerical model implementation of MOHID previously developed, calibrated, and validated for this coastal area was used. Several scenarios were performed in order to explain the individual effect of the Minho River, rivers discharging into each Rias, and estuarine morphology changes. According to the model results, the Minho River discharge is a key factor in the establishment of the negative circulation, while small rivers inside the Rias slightly attenuate this circulation. The negative circulation was stronger in Ria de Pontevedra independently of the distance of this coastal system from the Minho River mouth, showing that morphologic estuarine features are the main factor justifying the different local circulation patterns.

A numerical study of local variations in tidal regime of Tagus estuary, Portugal.

Tidal dynamics of shallow estuaries and lagoons is a complex matter that has attracted the attention of a large number of researchers over the last few decades. The main purpose of the present work is to study the intricate tidal dynamics of the Tagus estuary, which states as the largest estuary of the Iberian Peninsula and one of the most important wetlands in Portugal and Europe. Tagus has large areas of low depth and a remarkable geomorphology, both determining the complex propagation of tidal waves along the estuary of unknown manner. A non-linear two-dimensional vertically integrated hydrodynamic model was considered to be adequate to simulate its hydrodynamics and an application developed from the SIMSYS2D model was applied to study the tidal propagation along the estuary. The implementation and calibration of this model revealed its accuracy to predict tidal properties along the entire system. Several model runs enabled the analysis of the local variations in tidal dynamics, through the interpretation of amplitude and phase patterns of the main tidal constituents, tidal asymmetry, tidal ellipses, form factor and tidal dissipation. Results show that Tagus estuary tidal dynamics is extremely dependent on an estuarine resonance mode for the semi-diurnal constituents that induce important tidal characteristics. Besides, the estuarine coastline features and topography determines the changes in tidal propagation along the estuary, which therefore result essentially from a balance between convergence/divergence and friction and advection effects, besides the resonance effects.